Football Betting

Brees brings home MVP to the Big Easy

Football Betting Lines

02/08/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a city that has struggled in both the world of sports and in day-to-day life, Drew Brees has brought a smile to the faces of the New Orleans residents.

The party will be rocking for the next few days in the Big Easy and Brees will be the guest of honor as his performance in Super Bowl XLIV garnered him the Most Valuable Player award.

With Mardi Gras less than 10 days away, New Orleans doesn't need any excuse for a good time, but Sunday's 31-17 win over Indianapolis and Brees' MVP award gives the city even more of an excuse and helps to further erase the memories of the 2005 Hurricane Katrina disaster that destroyed much of the city and even damaged the Superdome where the Saints play.

Moreover, it gives a franchise that was once known as the 'Aints and whose fans wore brown paper bags over their heads a chance to lift those heads high.

"We played for so much more than just ourselves," Brees said. "We played for our city, we played for the entire Gulf Coast region. We played for all the entire Who Dat? nation who was behind us every step of the way. We've been blessed with so much and just to have this opportunity is unbelievable."

On the game-winning drive, Brees went 7-for-7 for 44 yards with a two-yard strike to Jeremy Shockey followed by a two-point conversion toss to Lance Moore giving the team a 24-17 lead with 5:42 to play.

Tracy Porter's 74-yard interception return for a touchdown on the Colts' ensuing touch sealed the win.

For the game, Brees went 32-for-39 with 288 yards and two touchdowns with a 114.5 quarterback rating. His 32 completions tied a Super Bowl record.

On his other touchdown pass, it was a 16-yard short screen pass to Pierre Thomas that gave the Saints a 13-10 lead early in the third quarter after the team opted for an onsides kick, which they recovered, to start the second half.

The game featured two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Brees and Peyton Manning, who is a four-time league MVP and won the MVP in a Super Bowl XLI victory over Chicago.

However, it was Brees who was flawless in this game as he never turned over the ball and Manning's late interception doomed any chances of the Colts winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the past four years.

Originally a second-round pick of San Diego in the 2001 draft, Brees spent his first five seasons with the Chargers and had productive years, but after the 2005 season he refused a contract offer by the Chargers and opted to sign with New Orleans.

"I felt like coming to New Orleans was a calling and that God puts you in positions for a reason," Brees said. "At the time you may ask yourself, 'I'm not sure, but I trust you.' I know that me coming to New Orleans and having an opportunity there was definitely a calling and it was an opportunity not many people get in their entire life to be able to come to a city like that that had just been devastated by a natural disaster."

Since then he has exploded in the bayou as he has thrown for over 4,300 yards and 26 touchdowns in each of his four seasons with New Orleans. In 2008, he had a 5,069-yard performance with 34 touchdowns, garnering the Offensive Player of the Year award.

"Four years ago, who ever thought this would be happening," Brees said. "When 85 percent of the city was under water, all of its residents evacuated to places all over the country, most people not knowing New Orleans would ever come back or if the organization as a team would ever come back."

This past season he guided the team to wins in the first 13 games and the Saints finished with a 13-3 record as he threw for 4,388 yards and 34 touchdowns.

He then went on to lead the Saints to a 45-14 pasting of Arizona in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs and a 31-28 overtime win over the Brett Favre-led Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship game.


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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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